Saturday, January 16, 2016

Email to My Grandson - Business Major - USD - 2017

Hi XXX;

I believe you will learn more about Economics by watching this Youtube video than you might learn in your classes.  There are few professors that would present it like Richard Wolff.  It covers a lot of ground and ends with the conclusion that there must be a systemic change in the system.  That systemic change is the future of international business that you will enter when you graduate.  You will learn a lot about the past at USD.  How things got to be the way they are today.  I believe this is the best look at the future you will step into. 

Hindsight history knowledge is like driving a car by looking in the rear view mirror.  There is a rapidly changing world ahead.  If you see where things are going by looking ahead as well as knowing what was behind then I believe that is a better way to get where you want to be.  Doing that by self education to be ready for that future point in time.  Seeing it coming in advance.  Then you will be ready with a business career strategy based on fore knowledge acquired by your own study efforts when it does. 

It is like figuring out what kind of pitch is going to be thrown in advance of swinging the bat.  Maybe this is it?  It’s a guess.  Good decisions are based on the best guess.  You decide.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9FxYixTsUE

XXX

This postscript was not in the email.  I read it after sending the email.  It refers to what Richard Wolff said about the glut of oil.

Iran Says International Sanctions To Be Lifted Saturday

"Iran's expected return to an already glutted oil market is one of the main factors contributing to a global rout in oil prices, which fell below $30 a barrel this week for the first time in 12 years. Tehran says it could boost exports by 500,000 barrels per day within weeks and another 500,000 within a year, in a world already producing 1.5 million barrels a day more than it consumes and running out of storage space to hold it."

"Even before the expected announcement, Iran's Mehr news agency reported on Saturday that executives from two of the world's largest oil companies, Shell and Total, had arrived in Tehran for talks with the state oil company and tanker company."

WTF?

What might be the Capitalist strategy to best immediately raise the price of oil?????

How might the supply be quickly restricted? 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/16/business/energy-environment/oil-prices-one-million-barrel-glut.html 
"On the supply side, if tensions erupting between Saudi Arabia and Iran lead to armed conflict or an insurrection, the excess production could quickly disappear. "

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/2016/01/re-covering-oil-and-war/
"Barring large scale warfare in the Middle East there is nothing that can solve the low oil price conundrum. But think about it, which Gulf nation can even afford such warfare in present times? For that matter, which nation in the world can?
The US may try and ignite a proxy war with Russia, but that would lead to an(other) endless and unwinnable war theater. Which would carry the threat of dragging in China as well. The US and its -soon even officially- shrinking economy can’t afford that. Which of course by no means guarantees it won’t try."

If Big Oil can't be bailed out by in increase in the price of oil as a function of reduction in supply due to warfare then what/who what entity or event is going to bail out a systemically to big to fail enterprise?

Exactly how is a bail out to be accomplished?  Pay at the pump?  Government loan?

If no bail out then bankruptcy?

Have we seen this game played before?

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