Sunday, May 6, 2018

Autonomous Vehicles and the Other Driver - Social Change Implications

I recently returned from a 3 week trip in Australia where I drove about 500 miles.  I lived in Australia for two years in the '70's and quickly noted a change in the the nature of drivers there.

Driving in the 70's required munch more defensive driving awareness because the general driving safety situation was not good.  Speeding, tailgating, weaving in and out of traffic, etc.  Generally aggressive driving.  The difference?  First noticed was general lack of tailgating, Second was observance of speed limits.  It seemed that if the limits were exceeded it was usually only by 3 or 4 miles per hour.  These two things immediately struck me as a big change and after an initial few days driving I had the feeling that drivers in general were simply more courteous. Courtesy simply being defined as increased situational awareness resulting in what I would call "coordinated" driving.  A type of driving in which human awareness and the application of logic and reason by drivers to mutual nature of the driving situation that when asking why this is so the answer is:  It is best for everyone!

Driving on the left hand side initially required substantially much more focus and concentration and actual increase in the level of fear.  For good reason...it is not normal!  Initially, everytime I drove I actually said "this is Australia and today I am going to drive on the left hand side".  After a few days I continued to say that but for the rest of the trip it became a sarcastic joke.  Part of the reason was not increased natural skill in driving on the left but general reduction in the fear of driving because if I did anything wrong or unsafe out of right hand habit the results would be avoided or reduced as a consequence of the "good" driving of others driving well.

Why do they subjectively drive (I think actually objectively drive) better in Australia than the USA?  Better being what I believe to be more coordinated?  More coordinated meaning more like and autonomous vehicle would drive?  Some speculation here.  First I think it is due to the greater prevalence of speed cameras?  Perhaps increased speeding fines but I am only guessing at that.  Higher insurance rates?  National traffic safety programs?  Whatever it is I would say that the most striking thing is not only the observance of speed limits on the major highways but also the increased spacing of vehicles.  In any four lane situation its was easier to change lanes but I also noticed that there were substantially fewer lane change frequency over time.  In general all vehicles traveled at the same speed.  Surprisingly that speed on a 4 lane was not only closer to the posted limit but if the first vehicle in a long line of cars driving in the left hand lane was 3 MPH above the limit then all cars behind it remained well spaced at the same speed.  This was often true even if the lead car was traveling at the speed limit.    Never happen in the USA.

Somehow Australian drivers were in my observation somehow to drive more like an autonomous vehicle was in control doing the "right" thing more consistent with rules of "doing the right thing".
That, exactly, is what non-autonomous drivers must do in the future where there are autonomous driven vehicle on the same road.

I like Australia, been there a dozen times.  Mostly on a bicycle for long periods.  I like the social environment of Australia as well as the natural environment.  It is an egalitarian society and one in which the nature of "good day mate" is a "natural" trait because Australians believe in it like many Americans, unfortunately, believe "America First" to a socially detrimental extent.  It is the difference between what two countries think of themselves socially.  What they think is what they believe.  What they believe is how they act.  Sportsmanship is big in Australia.  The expression "give 'em a fair go" is a national meme.

Maybe the way Australians drive is a function of the national character of what kind of people they think they are?  Maybe the first rule of driving in Australia is: "Give 'em a fair go"?

https://www.quora.com/What-do-Australians-mean-by-the-term-a-fair-go

Memes have a strong influence in Australia shaping the national character.  The movie Australia has about all the foundational memes woven into it that I can think of.  A person would have to be an Australian to see and know them.  They would go over the heads of Americans.  It was a movie about Australian memes.  Memes they not only celebrate as national character but live by like religious belief.  Interesting that religion is not that big an influence in Australia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Australia

Maybe the stats might look like the USA but the influence on shaping the national character is in my opinion far less.  Perhaps actual attendance is close but more nominal in Australia?  Australian identity memes are stronger factors in shaping the national character than religion.  I wonder if Australian memes are woven into the nature of religion in Australia?  If so, then a clever move by organized religion to choose the content of what is preached to what the people already believe.  Australia is a nation that also carries the memes of an founding prisoner population.

But I stray.....

Here is the focus thought:

There is a big change coming with self driving cars.  The biggest change is integrating a legacy social attitude in how people drive with how they should drive for logical and reasonable greater benefit for everyone on the road.  That way is the way that autonomous vehicles must drive.  It is the way that non-autonomous vehicles should drive.  Not only should drive but must be the human drivers controlled (forced if unwilling)  into driving.

That level of "driver control shaping" is a "social problem" equal to the "hardware/software" problem of designing and operating an autonomous vehicle.  It is a social problem that must be addressed by current shaping of actual driving behavior to the logic and reason level of autonomous driving.  Otherwise human beings are rounded pegs pounded into a designed square hole as they integrate into a new social norm.

Americans do not integrate well.

Maybe Australia should be the world leader in the introduction of autonomous vehicles!

The new Australian meme:  "We are number one because we give everyone a fair go on the road as well as in our country".

The driver that ran the red light did not give the autonomous vehicle a "Fair Go" as a function of the attitude and consequent actions of the driver in control.

The required changes to integrate diver social behavior with autonomous vehicle behavior must be driven by the the logic embedded in the sensors and software of the autonomous vehicle.  The necessary social changes necessary to do that must be designed and implemented as formally as those applicable to autonomous vehicles.  The great challenge is that unlike machines that operate based on operating systems and application software that reduce ambiguity of results to an absolute minimum is:.......

Human beings are not machines!  Performance cannot be dictated unless it is dictated.  Compliance with strict rules of behavior is by choice.  That is an alternate method of social control.  The idea and social nature of human "Choice" has evolved to make it more amenable to "programming".

It is fascinating to speculate how human beings driving vehicles are going to be "programmed" to integrate with a system aimed at the eventual objective of all vehicles on the road operating under autonomous control.  What makes it more fascinating is that the technical  time frame for creating and introducing autonomous vehicle operation on roads at an integration level that operate in cooperatively with human drivers is much shorter than what it certainly takes to implement the social changes necessary to change the driving habits of human beings to accomplish a safe integration.

I think that the social changes necessary must be designed and "driven" meaning driven upon drivers in order to implement the integration.

What is the magnitude of social engineering that will accomplish that?

I would place the magnitude at a level equal to the social changes necessary to implement gun control.

How to get an entire population of all drivers to do it in a short time frame equal to the autonomous vehicle introduction projected time frame driven by the industry is the big problem.

The biggest problem is the minority that will not give up the steering wheel until it is pried from their cold dead hands.

Hardware/Software driven cars will  absolutely will drive better that human beings.  Pilots are human beings with greatest skill and control but their airplanes basically fly themselves.  The aviation model is where automobiles are headed.

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=social+implications+autonomous+vehicles&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwivk6bIvfHaAhUL_mMKHWaXCjkQgQMILzAA

https://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf


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