Friday, May 23, 2014

China is Collapsing--Again and Again

This is my last blog post on China collapsing.

Based on somebody's economic model it is and must collapse.  The holy model tells us so! 

The sky is falling!

At this link written by David Stockman: Why China Will Implode:  It is a Monumental Building Aberration, Not an Economy

I am a nobody, I really know nothing about all this.  All I have are some thoughts formed by my own views of the problem domain by just looking at money, economy, society like Darwin looked at nature and tried to figure it all out.  Darwin had it easy because Nature, when the model is figured out is essentially rather easy to comprehend because it is a rational system with natural laws.

From the link:

"In fact, China is a grotesque economic aberration that bears no relationship to prior economic history or any conventional economic models – not even to the export-mercantilism model originally developed by Japan, and which has now proven itself wholly unsustainable. Instead, China is a nation that has gone mad building, speculating, and borrowing on the back of a credit bubble so monumental (and dangerously unstable) that its implications are resolutely ignored by observers deluded by the notion that China embodies a unique economic model called “red capitalism.” "

Illustrating the madness is the production of cement on credit trillions of time more than used in the great wall---that is my own hyping of the magnitude of crazyness.

The USA during WWII went crazy building stuff and the stuff itself had no lasting evidence of being build like unoccupied cities and roads to nowhere.  The stuff built went poof on a one way trip like bombs being dropped, which of course was a stimulated rebuilding.  Money was borrowed to do that.

All that war money went into the hands of people to spend it.  All that war developed expertise went into building commerce and economy.

Seems to me that the greatest economic stimulus of WWII that advanced the USA so fast and so far was built on demolishing cities outside the USA while China's will be based on constructing cities, occupied or not, roads, used or not, in its own country.

What is this all some kind of joke to say China is doomed?

Seems to me that they skipped the step of making death and destruction pay off well by putting money in the hands of people that produced the means to accomplish it.

China went directly to building and producing some things that had as much real value in the end as war production.

Waste is waste.

There is a social good that results from planned and intended waste.

Production of waste related stuff of any nature puts money in the hands of people that can spent on consumerism and drive the economy re-oriented to produce consumer goods to satisfy demand after the waste is over?? 

Is that some kind of model?

Maybe the traditional economic model says that China is doomed.  That however is based on the debt money model.  What if China gets so far doomed that in catastrophe  of going off the cliff changes the money debt model to a whole new ball game??

It just wipes out, writes out debt?

Revolutionary!

Chinese are very clever people.

Good for them.

How is China going to pay for all that credit crushing debt?

They aren't.

Will the world end when China just writes it all off?

That is not playing by the rules!

Write off everything except what they owe Russia for gas to keep their car running.

Produce to meet their own demand.

Invest the profit of production in their own social benefit and advancement.

It is a People's Republic. 

What is the USA?  "We the People?"







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